January 8, 2026 | SIBTF.org — California taxpayers paid for a study that almost destroyed one of the state’s most vital protections — the Subsequent Injuries Benefits Trust Fund (SIBTF) — a lifeline for the state’s most catastrophically disabled workers. According to an investigation by The Jacobi Journal, RAND’s 2024 report overstated SIBTF’s financial liability by $6.75 billion, creating a false fiscal crisis that nearly dismantled an employer‑funded program and would have shifted the cost of care onto taxpayers.
A Publicly Funded Error With Private Costs
The SIBTF has quietly protected thousands of injured workers for generations — including veterans, seniors, and lifelong tradespeople who gave everything to California’s economy. The SIBTF is funded entirely by employers, not taxpayers and it helps to ensure that those who become fully disabled after workplace injuries do not fall into poverty.
RAND’s study, however, claimed the fund carried a $7.9 billion unfunded liability, a number quickly repeated by lawmakers justifying bills like SB 1329, which sought to cut lifetime benefits for catastrophically disabled workers. But an independent investigation by The Jacobi Journal of Insurance Investigation revealed RAND’s estimate was off by nearly 85%, placing the fund’s real liability around $1.25 billion — a figure well within California’s fiscal capacity.
The Jacobi Journal uncovered glaring methodological flaws: RAND used a 91% payout assumption (when the historical average is closer to 24%). It also paired an unrealistically low 3% discount rate with a high 3.9% COLA, while ignoring shorter life expectancies among severely disabled individuals. Independent actuaries have condemned the approach as “mathematical malpractice.”
Turning Research Into a Weapon
RAND’s flawed data didn’t just mislead policymakers; it nearly transformed an employer-funded promise of fairness into California taxpayer obligation.
Had those projections gone unchallenged, thousands of disabled veterans, aging workers, and accident victims would have been stripped of future employer-funded benefits. Many would be pushed onto taxpayer funded programs like Medi‑Cal, SSI, and Medicare. The result? Higher public spending, fewer protections, and deeper inequities.
The RAND report turned public money into propaganda. It tried to disguise austerity as science. It’s unacceptable that Californians paid for a study designed—or negligently executed—to make the most vulnerable look unaffordable.
The consequences of such errors are not abstract. They are measured in lost homes, broken families, and disabled Californians forced to rely on social programs that are already hanging by a thread.
Oversight, Transparency, and Moral Leadership
SIBTF.org is calling for immediate corrective action and systemic oversight. The organization urges state leaders and accountability agencies to:
- Commission an independent audit into RAND’s SIBTF findings and its contract authorization.
- Mandate external actuarial review of all future state-funded studies impacting worker or disability policy.
- Reaffirm California’s commitment to evidence-based research and moral governance that prioritizes human welfare over political convenience.
RAND’s error nearly turned a taxpayer investment in research into a taxpayer liability for poverty.
California’s Promise Must Hold
The SIBTF remains one of California’s most effective, responsibly managed systems — built on fairness, sustained by employers, and vital to those who gave their physical strength to build the state’s prosperity. Dismantling it based on false data would not only betray that legacy but also cost taxpayers billions in the long run.
California can correct the math — but first, it must confront the moral failure. RAND’s report was more than an actuarial misstep; it was a near-miss in the fight for economic justice. The people who build this state, fight for it, and keep it running deserve truth and protection — not policy built on errors.
For more information, visit
or contact